Economic security analysis
Tradeint.ai is an Australian analytics firm working on economic security. We help governments and manufacturers build resilience to trade shocks: knowing where a supply chain is exposed, what a disruption would cost, and which measures would reduce that cost.
Start with a questionWhy this work
In April 2025 China introduced export licensing on seven rare earth elements. Vehicle manufacturers across several countries lost access to magnets. Within weeks, production plans for the year were being revised.
Magnets are a small share of the cost of a car. That is what made them so easy to miss.
Earlier this year the disruption to Gulf shipping made a different point. India imports urea, and also produces it domestically using gas that is substantially imported. Both the finished product and the feedstock move through the same strait. Domestic capacity had shifted the exposure one step upstream rather than removing it.
Neither exposure was obvious in advance. We use advanced data analytics to find supply chain risks and the options to mitigate them.
Where leverage sits
Value accumulates towards the end of a chain, which is where investment tends to follow. Supply concentration usually sits earlier, in stages that are cheaper and less visible. The two rarely coincide.
How we help
Some reflect the shape of world supply. Others are a purchasing decision that could be changed next year. Trade volumes alone will not separate them.
Investment goes to assembly, because that is where the jobs and the visible value are. The chokepoint can be one or two steps upstream.
A second supplier buying from the same source is not a second source. Neither is a domestic plant whose feedstock arrives through the same strait as the imports it replaced.
Which industries stop, in what order, and what it comes to in money.
Which stage of a chain, in which location, and whether the numbers justify it.
What others facing the same constraint are doing, and what supply exists elsewhere.
How we work
The work is quantitative. It sources appropriate data for the question, and delivers a written brief with the sources and rationale explained. Where an intervention needs a business case, we appraise it using Treasury-endorsed cost-benefit methods, so the finding holds up under review.
Analysis runs on public data. The deliverable is a document, handled like any other — there is nothing to install, host or accredit.
Who we work with
Clients use the work to decide where to invest, what to hold, and which dependencies to act on first.
Start here
Engagements start with a single question. A short conversation is usually enough to tell whether we can answer it well.
raju@futurecrew.au